Slight update based on this week’s games. Germany is now 1.5 points behind Italy for the 3rd spot on the UEFA Coefficient list, losing a little bit of ground as Italy went 2–0-1 to Germany’s 1–2-1. Fiorentina and Juventus gained full points this week, but Robben’s wonder-goal eliminated Fiorentina from Europe. At the moment, Italy have only two teams left in Europe, while Germany has only lost Hertha Berlin. With Werder and Wolfsburg gaining valuable away draws with a goal and Hamburg getting a 3–1 victory at home over Anderlecht, there is high possibility that all three sides could progress to the quarter-finals.

How big is next week? If Wolfsburg and Werder were to get home wins and Hamburg and away draw it would bring the Bundesliga to 61.88 and a few wins/draws away from overtaking Serie A.

League	2004-05	2005-06	2006-07	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	Coeff.
Italy	14.00	15.36	11.93	10.25	11.38	13.57	62.91 -> 62.49
Germany	10.57	10.44	9.50	13.50	12.69	14.91	56.70 -> 61.04

Deloitte’s new Money League is up and Germany have added a club to the top 20.

Top 20 + Revenue
1. Real Madrid €401.4m (1st last year)
2. Barcelona €365.9m (3rd)
3. Man Utd €327.0m (2nd)
4. Bayern Munich €289.5m (4th @ €295.3m)
5. Arsenal €263.0m (6th)
6. Chelsea €242.3m (5th)
7. Liverpool €217.0m (7th)
8. Juventus €203.2m (11th)
9. Internazionale €196.5m (10th)
10. AC Milan €196.5m (8th)
11. Hamburg €146.4m (15th @ €127.9m)
12. Roma €146.4m (9th)
13. Lyon €139.6m (12th)
14. Marseille €133.2m (16th)
15. Tottenham Hotspur €132.7m (14th)
16. Schalke 04 €124.5m (13th @ €148.4m)
17. Werder Bremen €114.7m (unranked)
18. Borussia Dortmund €103.5m (unranked)
19. Man City €102.2m (20th)
20. Newcastle United €101.0m (17th)

Stuttgart dropped out, but Werder Bremen replaced them on the strength of their UEFA Cup final.

Meanwhile Dortmund seems to have put all of their financial woes behind them and joined the top 20. For one of Germany’s biggest clubs, it seems unnatural that they were absent for so long.

So with five of the top 20 clubs, Germany takes over sole second having passed Italy. Meanwhile Bayern held strong at the fourth spot, but lost ground to the top 3. Whereas last year, they were right on Barcelona’s tail; Bayern held position but Barca moved to second and United dropped to third, although Bayern Munich lost revenue and fell behind 3rd place by an additional €22 million. Granted, it was to the two finalists from last year’s Champions League. However it does show how finishing well in the premier competition can effect a club’s bottom line.

The interesting aspect to this is that Germany are 2 behind England in total teams on the table. However Newcastle, who currently hold 20th, will drop out next year due to being in the second division of English football.

Meanwhile, Stuttgart, who dropped out, but are still hovering near the cutoff, have a strong Champions League this year to possibly propel them back into the mix next year, which could see Germany equal England at 6 each. However, Bordeaux or Olympiacos, both hefty clubs could see themselves in the top 20 with a good Champions League run. Valencia or Benfica, who have both been in the top 20 within the past four years might return with a run to the finals of the Europa League.

See last years rankings here.

Is this the year where the Bundesliga gains a fourth spot? It could well be. Below is a table of the current UEFA Coefficient compared to how it stands if the season were to end today. At the end of the season, 2004–2005 will be removed from the books. In that season, Italy had 2.5 more points than Germany. It was the year Milan lost to Liverpool in the finals of the Champions League. Italy had 5 full points on Germany the following year, followed by another 1.5 point lead in 06–07. Since then Germany has been trending higher the last two campaigns (07–08 being a bit of a mare for Italy and last year being boosted by the Bundesliga’s UEFA Cup success). It was enough to offset the disaster of 05–06. With the 2.5 from five years ago going off the books, it will be replaced by this years results.

At the moment, there is a 1 point lead for Germany. A 2.8 point lead is necessary. So with the two competitions getting to the end, what are the chances?

For the Bundesliga, Stuttgart are holding on by a thread with a return leg at the holders in 3 weeks. Werder, Hamburg and the Wolves are all through to the final 16 in the Europa.

For Italy, Juve are still in the Europa; meanwhile, Inter take a lead to Stamford Bridge. Milan are effectively out.

That leaves Bayern and Fiorentina, who face off in two weeks in Florence. Bayern must overcome the Viola’s away goal, which leaves them in a strong position, despite Tom Henning Øvrebø. Bayern need to draw at least. A loss of 3–2 which would see them through to the next round would allow Fiorentina to offset the bonus point from progressing with 2 points for a victory.

If Bayern can make it through, it will leave Germany with four clubs to accumulate points compared with a possible 2 for Italy, although we should all be pulling for Chelsea to be safe.

With .33 points for a win, .167 for a draw and another .167 for each round progression, the Bundesliga needs five more victories to get close to the 2.8 difference. But with Europa being in Hamburg this year, the incentive for 3 northern clubs to see the final could be all we need to get a fourth spot by 2011.

League	2004-05	2005-06	2006-07	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	Coeff.
Italy	14.00	15.36	11.93	10.25	11.38	13.00	62.91 -> 61.91
Germany	10.57	10.44	9.50	13.50	12.69	14.08	56.70 -> 60.21

Seriously WTF?

Two years ago Stuttgart did a nice little number on our coefficient by losing five games in the group stages. It looks like they are going to try and repeat that damage to our coefficient again this time around after an uninspiring home draw to Rangers. Unable to take advantage of the absence of Rangers’ captain David Weir, ruled out late, the Swabians enjoyed the better first half but could only must one goal from Progrebnyak. The second half they were thoroughly outplayed by a Rangers side that could barely afford the airfare let alone to strengthen their squad this year, and were probably lucky to escape with the point.

Rule number #1 that somebody, and I guess it needs to be me, needs to impress upon the Swabian heirarchy is that you win your effing home ties. Stuttgart, who are a team I have a lot of time for, are really going to get my vote for “NEVER AGAIN” if they don’t get it together. I don’t mean to be a curmudgeon here, but we can’t afford for Stuttgart to embarrass themselves again, not when we are on the cusp of getting 3rd in the UEFA Coefficient Ranking.

Two years ago they lost both games to Rangers, so some might say that this is an improvement. However, two years ago, the SPL wasn’t a league ready to drop into Nordic levels of importance in Europe. That Rangers side at least went on to challenge for the UEFA Cup. This Rangers side will be lucky to get games 7 and 8 in Europe come the new year. Well unless Stuttgart replicate their pathetic showing of two years ago, where they only beat Lyon after they had secured knock-out stage football.

And just so we all know, Hamburg embarrassed themselves and us with the same 5 loses in the group stages the year before Stuttgart, but at least they gained back some coefficient points with a semi-run in the UEFA Cup last year. I don’t expect Stuttgart to make the semi-finals, but a third place finish is the minimum. So they need to start winning games to pay us back for ’07.

We are very close to stealing a 3rd spot from Italy in the Champions League, which means a fourth team and three automatic slots. And its all riding on Stuttgart after Wolfsburg and Bayern showed that they are ready for a knock-out stage visit.

Or maybe the Champions League just comes at a bad time for the Swabians. If they played the competition exclusively in April and May, they might be aiming for their third straight title. But it’s played NOW, so get it together Babbel!

9:30 ET Schalke 04 VS TSG Hoffenheim
9:30 ET Bayern Munich VS VfB Stuttgart
9:30 ET VfL Wolfsburg VS Werder Bremen
9:30 ET Arminia Bielefeld VS Hannover 96
9:30 ET Energie Cottbus VS Bayer Leverkusen
9:30 ET FC Cologne VS VfL Bochum
9:30 ET Karlsruhe VS Hertha Berlin
9:30 ET Borussia Monchengladbach VS Borussia Dortmund
9:30 ET Eintracht Frankfurt VS Hamburg SV

The Meisterschaft will hinge on Wolfsburg, whom only need a draw at home to Werder Bremen, who wouldn’t been keen on helping Bayern Munich in the first place. Bremen also have the DFB Pokal final in a few days, so are likely to rest key (and tired) players after Wednesday’s heartbreaking loss to Shaktar. Wolfsburg, whom many predicted to fold after the news of Magath’s departure, look sharp again after two drubbings of Dortmund and Hannover.

Bayern could technically win the league with a Wolfsburg draw and nine goal victory over the visiting Swabians. But knowing that this is unlikely, Bayern are resigned to securing the automatic Champions League spot, which a draw would secure.

Unfortunately, they host the team that sits second in the second half form table. A win for the Swabians would secure them 2nd and could send Bayern Munich to the Europa League. Current form aside, Markus Babbel’s men need a victory to ensure Champions League next year with Hertha hot on their trail, so it is squeaky bum time for the Bavarian giants.

Hertha Berlin sit fourth at the moment, but a win away to lowly Karsruhe, who could still make it to the relegation/promotion match with a win, puts the Capital side in next year’s Champions League regardless of the outcome of Bayern-Stuttgart. Anything less and they will finish the day where they started.

The final Euopean battle comes down to Dortmund and Hamburg for the last Europa League spot. Sitting even on points, Dortmund posses a commanding goal difference. Dortmund visit Gladbach, who need a victory to ensure survival. Hamburg visit Eintracht who are already safe. Dortmund is the hotter side, so they have the upperhand, but a draw could see their late surge all for naught if Hamburg can overcome their late season doldrums.

In the relegation battle, all four teams host games this final weekend. Gladbach host Dortmund as was mentioned and Karlsruhe host Hertha Berlin. The other two teams attempting to avoid the drop are Cottbus, who host Leverkusen. Leverkusen also have the DFB Pokal next week and will rest some players ahead of their showdown with Werder Bremen. Arminia host Hannover in the final relegation game. With Artur Wichniarek back from injury, the could make the great escape considering their opponent.

Cologne host Bochum and Schake host Hoffenheim in the only matches without repercussions to the season.

GolTV will be showing a simulcast of the Bayern-Stuttgart, Wolfsburg-Werder matches along with a post game(s) victory show starting at 11:30 AM.

Meanwhile there is little drama in the Zweite where only a Nuremburg win coupled with a Mainz loss could see Nuremburg gain automatic promotion and Mainz in the playoff game, instead of the other way round. Meanwhile three teams fight to avoid the relegation game on the other end of the table, and all three are on the road. Rostock visits Wehen, Frankfurt visits St. Pauli and Osnabruck visit Duisburg. A win would secure any of these three, separated by two points, safety. If comes down to draws, Rostock have the upper hand with superior goal difference and a relegated foe. Freiburg is guaranteed of coming up and Ingolstadt and Wehen are heading down to the new 3. Bundeliga.

For us fans of German football it was a sad night, but for us football fans, it wasn’t. The Ukraine won their first European title with a team that earned it’s victory. And they were an attractive team to watch with Srna, Luiz Adriano, the Rat and Ilsinho making the core of a very entertaining side. They were able to check Werder’s counter attack and controlled the posession for most of the match. So while I send my condolences to Werder supporters, we should all be happy for the positive emergence of Ukranian football on the night. And let’s not forget the excellent atmosphere that starts first with Turkey and its football crazy fans who made up the neutrals.

As for the game, Shaktar came out firing on all cylinders and controlled play for the first 20 minutes. Only when Werder seemed to be getting some command of the game did Donetsk strike. A beautifully delivered Ilsinho through-ball, that turned the Bremen defense, found a wide open Luiz Adriano, who made up for his 5th minute miss with a the opener. Naldo hit back 10 minutes later on a free-kick, which was mishandled by the Donetsk keeper Pyatov. The second half was a stalemate with both sides having periods of dominance that petered out on poor finishing or good defending. A game that seemed destined for penalties as both teams tired, was decided early in extra time when Tim Wiese, who had been solid all game, allowed a dink shot by Jadson to skirt under him for the eventual winner. A late surge by Bremen resulted in two disallowed goals and Shaktar walked away with the spoils.

Seven Observances from the last UEFA Cup Final

Diego’s grand exit

Unfortunately we didn’t get to see Diego off with a grand flourish. This had turned into his tournament, but his temper saw him miss out on a chance to cap it. His indelible mark on the league may be that temper. A wonderfully gifted player to watch and a talisman during his three years at Werder Bremen, he has never produced the goods. Werder are without a trophy during his time, with their greatest accomplishment over that course being the winter title three years ago. While that could change next week in the DFB Pokal, one wonders if being so close to Werder’s first European Cup since Michael Keaton was Batman only to lose will leave Bremen listless during their final two games.

What To Do?

How will Thomas Schaaf cope without Diego. One of the games more attack minded managers, he has built his success on the counter, utilizing wing-play and a double six formation. But there needs to be a point in the midfield that can link the defense and wings with the forwards. Diego has been that man for three years. Will Schaaf change his approach or will some gem be uncovered elsewhere to be that point? Because it certainly isn’t.…

Mesut Ozil

To say he isn’t ready to fill Diego’s shoes would be an understatement. He was a boy among men, incapable of a moment of inspiration, let alone commanding tempo, carrying the ball forward or setting up the chances. He was abject in this match and why he wasn’t pulled is a question we will all wonder for years to come. Pizarro has to be wondering it as he was left without a link man the entire match. What has become apparent is that he is basically the best guy you could imagine to take to a club as your wing-man, but you wouldn’t wanted him approaching any comely lasses on his own.

Speaking of the Lasses

If you were watching on television, what was with that female Werder fan starting her crying in the 7th minute of extra time? You moan before, whinge during, bitch after and cry in a beer. Those are the rules sister.…learn them! Yes that goal seemed to be the nail at the time, but there were still 23 plus minutes for a team that had comeback from worse against A.C. Milan and Hamburg. To be honest, Pizzaro scored the equalizer in the 122nd. Not a foul! How anyone can start the histrionics at that juncture is beyond me.

Darijo Srna is the SHIT!

He was out of this world. We could see his quality in last year’s European Championship for Croatia, but he had become easy to forget playing in an up-and-coming but poorly-covered league. He traumatized poor Sebastian Boenisch, ran his boots off for 120 minutes, was the most effective defender at neutralizing the counter and saved the match when he got between Ozil and the goal late in the second half. I

On Werder’s end it was another right wing player, Clemens Fritz who deserves recognition for being Werder closest approximation of the whirling dervish that was Srna tonight.

Howling at the Moon

In the long run, they equaled out, but both keepers had amazing blunders that cost their teams tonight. Andrei Pyatov’s felt that Naldo’s freekick needed help and palmed Werder’s equalizer into the back of his net. On the other side, Tim Wiese used extraordinarily poor positioning to allow Jadson’s unremarkable shot to become a winner. Thinking about it, maybe that woman who was crying is a goal keeper.

If Only

While we can all rue the absence of Almeida, Per and Diego, deep into extra time the man who they needed popped up in black. His name was Thomas Schaaf. With time running down and the no Werder player seeming willing to get the ball back up field for the throw in (which would lead to a Pizarro chance), Schaaf jumped on the pitch and kicked the ball to the thrower. His quickness and determination stood in stark contrast to his players, who had seemed uninterested and to be running on fumes (other than Fritz and Pizarro) from the first minute.

While yesterday’s antics by Chelsea and the drama in dying minutes get all the coverage, today’s semi-final matchup between Werder Bremen and Hamburg provided significantly more bang for the buck, and a real game to boot. And while there were a few questionable calls, the only German to cover himself in shame, this week, was Mannschaft captain Michael Ballack.

Entering the return leg with a 1–0 lead and a road goal, Martin Jol’s side had the distinct advantage at home in the Nordbank Arena. While the match started tepidly, especially compared to the end-to-end first leg, things changed in the 13th minute. After Pizarro missed a chance for Werder, Hamburg hit on the counter and co-captian Mathijssen hit Olic who waited for Tim Weise to commit before giving HSV a two goal lead.

The way Werder were playing, this looked like the end for Thomas Schaaf’s men. For 120 minutes, they had been absolutely anemic in front of goal. They had dominated possession and created over 20 chances during that stretch, yet couldn’t find the back of the net as their strike force looked to be boys playing against men.

But as has been the case on this remarkable run in the UEFA Cup, Diego stepped up and carried the team. On the half hour mark, he gathered the ball deep in HSV territory. He then played a slick give-and-go with Pizarro, losing his marker much too easily. Getting the ball back free in the box, he leveled the score, giving Werder their first sign of hope. Seven minutes later, he almost gave Werder the advantage when he blasted a long range attempt that Frank Rost was able to deflect onto the bar to save Hamburg’s skin.

Rost wasn’t the only keeper on fire, Weise made six saves, three of them critically important to the final outcome. In the 23rd, he stopped Olic; in the 38th, he stopped Janssen; and, in the 70th he stopped Alex Silva. While Weise’s form never dipped, Rost did have one shocking moment that may have cost the hosts a trip to Turkey. The second goal came when Pizarro gathered a ball near the box, turned by Alex Silva and launched a salvo at the HSV goal. Rost should have saved it, but his reaction was slow and the ball bounced by him. Werder had leveled and were in command on away-goals.

Controversially, they got a third in the 83rd minute, when a projectile caused a back pass by Michael Gravgaard to go out for a corner. The resulting set piece found Captain Frank Baumann unmarked and he headed the third goal in for the tie-winner. What followed was a hectic final 7 minutes, where Hamburg clawed themselves back into the tie when Olic scored from a Boateng cross in the 87th. But that was as close as they came.

Ineviteably, despite the projectile, Hamburg didn’t deserve to win. A Pizarro goal was called offside erroneously in the 52nd, while Pitroipa failed to connect with a sublime low cross by Janssen in the 69th. The ball then fell to Trochowski, but Weise proved why he was the MOM with another brilliant save.

Werder Bremen will now travel to Istanbul in 13 days time to face Shakhtar Donetsk for the UEFA Cup. But they will do so without their talisman Diego, who will miss the game after his third yellow for a shoving match with Alex Silva in the first half. Most importantly, neither Hamburg players nor the Hamburg faithful saw need to attack the ref, swear on camera or make a death threat. Reason #8 why the Bundesliga is better than the EPL.

Yes, the first half of Bayern’s match against Barcelona at the Camp Nou was embarrassing for the Bavarians. Sure it could have been worse had Barca not taken their foot off the gas in the second half of that game. And no, we can’t know what the outcome would have been back at the Allianz without the the K2 like obstacle. However, all is not lost.

No, I am not at a Bayern supporter, but neither am a hater. I am quite ambivalent about them though. And while funner to watch, they rate on the Bochum level to me. So with that out of the way, when it comes to Europe, I am obviously a Bayern fan. And I was embarrassed after the first leg tie with Barcelona. It was a spectacle to behold, the way the Cules cut through Germany’s largest club; unfortunately, the spectacle was embarrassing for a Bundesliga supporter.

Then I watched last night when Chelsea visited Camp Nou and played a brand of football that Rangers would brand as dull and lifeless. I then revisited last year’s trip to Catalonia that eventual champion’s Manchester United made to the cathedral of attacking football. It was possibly more insipid than Chelsea’s performance, but a year has made us forget. And after watching the pathetic, inept and incredulous displays of football by two of the big four team’s of football’s homeland, I am proud that Bayern tried to play. Sure nil-nil looks better, but when it comes to football, I will always take style over substance. Better to lose by trying to play your game, even with a loss by a significant amount, than ever win with anti-football: what is fast becoming British-football. They may have money and success right now, but with teams that succeed utilizing football that would make 1989 Wimbeldon seem like November’s Hoffenheim, England is bound for a huge fall.

The are sustained by television revenue, and that will dry up when people begin to realize that our league and La Liga are much funner to watch. So, while I empathize with Bayern fans over the loss and it’s severity and I bemoan the lost coefficient points, I would still rather be a team/fan that lost with vision than one that won with flaccidity. And let’s hope that Barca score at Stamford Bridge.

Werder Bremen went a long way to securing a spot in the semi-finals of the UEFA Cup with a 3–1 victory over Udinese tonight. Two brilliant goals by Diego and a third by Pizarro were enough to see off the Italian side and give the Green-Whites a hearty lead heading to Udine next week.

There would be a bevy of players to choose as MOM. Diego’s two beautiful strikes would be a starting point and there was also Per Mertesacker’s brilliance in the air shutting down Udinese’s main option in Quagliarella. Goalkeeper Tim Weisse saved two strikes from Quagliarella early in the second half, which could have changed the tie, as well as a late freekick by D’Agostino. Frings was solid in front of the back four, shutting down the middle of the pitch for the home side and Ozil delivered the final pass on both of Diego’s goals. Leftback Sebastian Boenisch did a great job of shutting down the left and provided the assist on the third goal. In fact the late score by Udinese was brought on by replacing Boenisch with Pasanen who was beaten to allow the ball into a dangerous area late.

However the person that had the most impact on this game wasn’t a player, it was Udinese manager Pasquale Marino, who set out to get a draw. The first half was a cynical approach by the Italian side as they put everyone behind the ball and lofted long balls to Quagliarella. It was the most English game I’ve seen a side play since the 1980’s, and it was intended to keep the score low and nick an away goal. It failed because of his second big error, which was to not man-mark either Diego or Ozil, leaving them acres of freedom. Diego must be drooling about his prospective move to Series A next year, if this is the type of marking he can expect. Ozil and Diego were both two meters free on the first goal. Their link led to an expertly taken goal from the edge of the box by the Brazilian playmaker. Udinese were then forced to chase the game and Werder were able to exploit on the counter.

Werder go to Udinese next week with a sizable lead and the knowledge that Ozil and Diego should be able to create plenty of chances to negate the late goal.

Meanwhile, Martin Jol take the same lead to Manchester next week. After conceding an early goal to City, the Dinosaurs scored through Mathijsen, Trochowski and Guerrero to make the possibility of an all German semifinal a real possibility.

Following this weekend’s drubbing at the hands of Wolfsburg, Bayern come into the hardest tie of the quarter finals of the Champion’s League on a low. Can they overcome the humiliation at the VW to get a result at Camp Nou against arguably the best team in Europe? Yes, they can.

Here’s how.

First, they need to shore up the defense which was picked apart by Misimovic, Dzeko and Grafite. First they need to revert to a 4–2-3–1. Padding their defense with a double-six would protect the weakest part of the team; however, Van Bommel and Ze Roberto are not strong enough to do that job, seeing as how they couldn’t handle Josue and Misimovic. I think Klinsmann would be better suited to slotting Ottl next to Van Bommel as the two players to sit in front of Breno and Dimichelis.

A three man attacking midfield would do a couple of things. First it would keep Podolksi off the pitch and would allow Sosa a chance to show his mettle on the biggest stage. He’s ready to break out and this could be the catalyst. Next, a four man attack of Toni and the three mids will allow the FB’s to sit back and defend, which is crucial for Lahm as he will be facing the twin attack of Messi and Alves. Finally, Ribery comes into this game knowing that he will be facing off to a worldwide audience with one of his few contemporaries: Lionel Messi. Give Franck freedom and he’s going to be ready to put on the show, especially if they can use Ottl and Van Bommel to absorb pressure and give him the outlet to run at Barca on the counter. Ribery is selling himself this series. We can act like he’s not leaving, but he probably will and another performance to match his double for les Blues and he can put him self into Torres and Berbatov transfer range.

Remember these two teams are very similar: they like possession, they have a variety of players who can do the incredible and they have shaky defenses and shakier keepers. So, Bayern has to play this game for the moment of inspiration, when someone creates a moment of beauty. With Schwiensteiger, Sosa, Toni and Ribery on the pitch, it gives them four potential candidates.

Yes Bayern had a bad weekend, but they had it against a very good side. But also a side with supreme confidence. If they can match Wolfsburg’s confidence as they visit Barcelona, they can dust themselves off after the 16 minute fiasco this weekend and come away with at least a draw and a goal, but only if they scrap the 4–4-2 and make some changes to the personnel.

Also, if they see someone back-heel the ball towards the net — SLOWLY — they might want to think of putting a foot to the ball.