Slight update based on this week’s games. Germany is now 1.5 points behind Italy for the 3rd spot on the UEFA Coefficient list, losing a little bit of ground as Italy went 2-0-1 to Germany’s 1-2-1. Fiorentina and Juventus gained full points this week, but Robben’s wonder-goal eliminated Fiorentina from Europe. At the moment, Italy have only two teams left in Europe, while Germany has only lost Hertha Berlin. With Werder and Wolfsburg gaining valuable away draws with a goal and Hamburg getting a 3-1 victory at home over Anderlecht, there is high possibility that all three sides could progress to the quarter-finals.
How big is next week? If Wolfsburg and Werder were to get home wins and Hamburg and away draw it would bring the Bundesliga to 61.88 and a few wins/draws away from overtaking Serie A.
| League |
2004–05 |
2005–06 |
2006–07 |
2007–08 |
2008–09 |
2009-10 |
Coeff. |
 Italy |
14.00 |
15.36 |
11.93 |
10.25 |
11.38 |
13.57 |
62.91 -> 62.49 |
 Germany |
10.57 |
10.44 |
9.50 |
13.50 |
12.69 |
14.91 |
56.70 -> 61.04 |
So perhaps this is where we should be.
Two giants of German football locking horns for the title.
Bayern Munich have won 5 of the last 9 championships. Magath has won 3 of the last 5, is responsible for 2 of Bayern’s 5 and even led Stuttgart to 2nd in the past decade. Bayern win because the are supposed to win. Magath sides win because they are the best conditioned. One is the biggest club in Germany and the fourth biggest club in the world. The other is probably the best manager in the world outside of Alex Ferguson and Fabio Capello. So will Magath win his 3rd championship with 3 teams? Or will the Bavarian giants do what they so often do?
A weekend of upsets led us to this titillating finish, with Schalke now just two points behind Bayern in second. With Bayer Leverkusen losing to Nuremburg 2-3 to record their first lossof the campaign, the reality of that record being predicated on too many draws is hitting them squarely now. While any non-partisan might have help hope for the Werkself to throw off the shackles of their bridesmaid mentality to win their first title, the gravity of history seems to have sunk the young squad. Even trainer Juup Heynckes has hinted at such today.
Meanwhile, Bayern forgot that Cologne are absolutely pants just like Lukas Podolski forgot that he is a farce. Most surprisingly, a crowd that so easily turns on its team decided to play 12th man for the first time in ages. The result was possibly the biggest surprise of the 2nd half of the season as Cologne pulled themselves six points clear of the drop with a 1-1 draw.
It could be that the deciding factor in this year’s title could be the Champions League as Van Gaal will be forced to tinker with the superior squad, as he did Saturday in anticipation of their mid-week trip to Florence, as long as they last in Europe.
Despite the talk being about Magath, we should start noticing that a very good collection of players (many still remain from the 2007 runner-up season) has started to play like a team rather than individuals. Despite losing captain Bordon, they went to Frankfurt and soundly beat the surprise team of the campaign 4-1, using four different goal scorers. For once the air of inevitability with regards to Schalke isn’t about what the won’t do but what they can do. People are starting to believe that Schalke can win this title, and as Bayern Munich can attest, the most important factor in any campaign can often be how you and your opponents regard you. The truth is that many games are won before the ball is kicked and Schalke via Magath will start to win games solely on the mystique of their manager.
Perhaps it all comes down to Saturday the 3rd of April when Bayern travel to Gelsenkirchen to face the Royal Blues. And maybe more for Bayern than Schalke, because Schalke will only continue to get stronger. They’re due for a winning streak. Bayern seem to be tailing off of one. And with a decent chance in Europe, Bayern have more on their plates than the Royal Blues. Anything less than a win out west could be costly for Bayern.
So sit back and enjoy. Typically the best seasons happen when Bayern are weak, but we might get a title run worthy of 2007 Stuttgart or 2009 Wolfsburg with Bayern being very strong.
I was born into the English leagues. I grew up in Britain so the only leagues I could see on television and see in person when I was a child in the late 70s and early 80s were the British leagues. And one of the factors that attracted me most to those leagues, not that I had much of a choice, was the noise and passion shown by the supporters. The scarves being unfurled. The songs being sung. The sheer lunacy after a goal was scored when the crowd would go mental.
As a man, I now have choices and can pick and choose which leagues to watch (thanks to advances in television and the ability to freely travel).
So it was with much delight when I watched two games on ESPN360.com this past Saturday. The first was Borussia Dortmund against Borussia Monchengladbach. The second was Cologne against Bayern Munich.
I must say that the supporters in both matches were incredible, which reminded me of football from the 1970s. For many of you readers, this is nothing new. You already know that the Bundesliga is the most passionate league in the world in terms of fans. But since I don’t watch the Bundesliga as much as you do, it was a joy to see packed stadiums and passionate supporters (of all ages) which is such a massive difference between the Premier League.
Deloitte’s new Money League is up and Germany have added a club to the top 20.
Top 20 + Revenue
1. Real Madrid €401.4m (1st last year)
2. Barcelona €365.9m (3rd)
3. Man Utd €327.0m (2nd)
4. Bayern Munich €289.5m (4th @ €295.3m)
5. Arsenal €263.0m (6th)
6. Chelsea €242.3m (5th)
7. Liverpool €217.0m (7th)
8. Juventus €203.2m (11th)
9. Internazionale €196.5m (10th)
10. AC Milan €196.5m (8th)
11. Hamburg €146.4m (15th @ €127.9m)
12. Roma €146.4m (9th)
13. Lyon €139.6m (12th)
14. Marseille €133.2m (16th)
15. Tottenham Hotspur €132.7m (14th)
16. Schalke 04 €124.5m (13th @ €148.4m)
17. Werder Bremen €114.7m (unranked)
18. Borussia Dortmund €103.5m (unranked)
19. Man City €102.2m (20th)
20. Newcastle United €101.0m (17th)
Stuttgart dropped out, but Werder Bremen replaced them on the strength of their UEFA Cup final.
Meanwhile Dortmund seems to have put all of their financial woes behind them and joined the top 20. For one of Germany’s biggest clubs, it seems unnatural that they were absent for so long.
So with five of the top 20 clubs, Germany takes over sole second having passed Italy. Meanwhile Bayern held strong at the fourth spot, but lost ground to the top 3. Whereas last year, they were right on Barcelona’s tail; Bayern held position but Barca moved to second and United dropped to third, although Bayern Munich lost revenue and fell behind 3rd place by an additional €22 million. Granted, it was to the two finalists from last year’s Champions League. However it does show how finishing well in the premier competition can effect a club’s bottom line.
The interesting aspect to this is that Germany are 2 behind England in total teams on the table. However Newcastle, who currently hold 20th, will drop out next year due to being in the second division of English football.
Meanwhile, Stuttgart, who dropped out, but are still hovering near the cutoff, have a strong Champions League this year to possibly propel them back into the mix next year, which could see Germany equal England at 6 each. However, Bordeaux or Olympiacos, both hefty clubs could see themselves in the top 20 with a good Champions League run. Valencia or Benfica, who have both been in the top 20 within the past four years might return with a run to the finals of the Europa League.
See last years rankings here.
Is this the year where the Bundesliga gains a fourth spot? It could well be. Below is a table of the current UEFA Coefficient compared to how it stands if the season were to end today. At the end of the season, 2004-2005 will be removed from the books. In that season, Italy had 2.5 more points than Germany. It was the year Milan lost to Liverpool in the finals of the Champions League. Italy had 5 full points on Germany the following year, followed by another 1.5 point lead in 06-07. Since then Germany has been trending higher the last two campaigns (07-08 being a bit of a mare for Italy and last year being boosted by the Bundesliga’s UEFA Cup success). It was enough to offset the disaster of 05-06. With the 2.5 from five years ago going off the books, it will be replaced by this years results.
At the moment, there is a 1 point lead for Germany. A 2.8 point lead is necessary. So with the two competitions getting to the end, what are the chances?
For the Bundesliga, Stuttgart are holding on by a thread with a return leg at the holders in 3 weeks. Werder, Hamburg and the Wolves are all through to the final 16 in the Europa.
For Italy, Juve are still in the Europa; meanwhile, Inter take a lead to Stamford Bridge. Milan are effectively out.
That leaves Bayern and Fiorentina, who face off in two weeks in Florence. Bayern must overcome the Viola’s away goal, which leaves them in a strong position, despite Tom Henning Øvrebø. Bayern need to draw at least. A loss of 3-2 which would see them through to the next round would allow Fiorentina to offset the bonus point from progressing with 2 points for a victory.
If Bayern can make it through, it will leave Germany with four clubs to accumulate points compared with a possible 2 for Italy, although we should all be pulling for Chelsea to be safe.
With .33 points for a win, .167 for a draw and another .167 for each round progression, the Bundesliga needs five more victories to get close to the 2.8 difference. But with Europa being in Hamburg this year, the incentive for 3 northern clubs to see the final could be all we need to get a fourth spot by 2011.
| League |
2004–05 |
2005–06 |
2006–07 |
2007–08 |
2008–09 |
2009-10 |
Coeff. |
| Italy |
14.00 |
15.36 |
11.93 |
10.25 |
11.38 |
13.00 |
62.91 -> 61.91 |
| Germany |
10.57 |
10.44 |
9.50 |
13.50 |
12.69 |
14.08 |
56.70 -> 60.21 |
There is a new book to add to the pantheon of German football books.
Jon Goulding (pronounced Gold-ing) is a Port Vale supporter living in Cheshire England. He was introduced to German football by his father-in-law, and fell in love with 1.FC Nürnberg. After attending a few games, Jon turned his mates onto the the delights of German football, beer and Bratwurst. And soon they form the British-based 1.FC Nürnberg fan club.
His new book, For Better or For Wurst is a compendium of his travels to Germany to watch his beloved 1FCN, including his first derby, the disastrous relegation campaign of 07-08 and the Cup in 07, as well as the formation of their supporters club. In total it covers 3 seasons and about 25 live matches as well as his constant travails to follow Der Club.
Here is an excerpt:
Berlin. 26th May, 2007
An empty stadium silently echoes with the events and legends of the past. Whether major or minor, global or local in scale, the ghosts of ‘those days’ creep into the imagination of the observer. The performances and performers, the spectators and the enormity of each occasion crackle through the static of the years as one desperately tries to imagine a long gone scene. Conversely, a full stadium fuses the past with the electricity, anticipation and excitement of the present.
To be standing in Berlin’s Olympiastadion would have been, as sports fans and tourists, a moment to reflect on the grand history of the place. Reflection on the famous ‘Nazi’ Olympics of 1936 and the four gold medal haul of Jesse Owens. And how about, albeit less significantly (unless you are French, or Italian for that matter), Zinedine Zidane’s World Cup Final head-butt on Marco Materazzi? Moments and people now etched into the stadium’s memories for eternity.
That the time for such reflection on the past was only fleeting was due to the magnitude of the present. Not on a global scale, maybe not even on a national scale and certainly without much interest beyond the borders of Germany. But in the Franconian and Schwaben areas of southern Germany, for the thousands of fans on the fan mile stretching westwards from Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate, and for the 74,400 fans in the old stadium itself, for that afternoon the significance and spectacle were difficult to surpass.
Three decades of living away from his native Germany and four decades in the footballing wilderness for his hometown team had somewhat hardened Herbert Schauer to the emotions of football. However, to be standing (for despite the provision of seats, that was how it was to be for most of the game) with fellow Franconians in this temple of sport was something of a spiritual experience. To be sharing this with his daughter and British supporters of ‘his’ team was a personal high after all of those years of support in exile and support in isolation. Thirty years of lone moments of despair only punctuated by the occasional, and all too often cruel, false dawn of impending success.
You can follow Jon at jongoulding.com and the supporters club at their Official Site.
GolTV soccer color commentator Lindsey Dean has left GolTV.
Dean, who often covered the Bundesliga and La Liga for GolTV, has left South Florida and moved to Chicago. The accomplished American commentator is best known by many as one of the pundits of the American Soccer show, which was a successful weekly soccer talk show that summarized all facets of U.S. soccer. During the show, Dean and colleague Ray Hudson often got into heated, but friendly debates, regarding controversial soccer topics.
Dean also was the host of Hallo Bundesliga, the GolTV show before Phil Schoen became host.
The reason for Dean leaving GolTV (and South Florida) is due to his wife getting a new job in Chicago.
Read Bundesliga Talk’s interview with Lindsey Dean from August, 2009.
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